Horizon League Hoops

There’s a lot not to like about Bracket Busters. Unless your conference is in the running for an at-large tournament bid (and at the mid-major level not many conferences are, the Horizon League included this season), there’s really only cool matchups and publicity to be gained. The possibility of injuries, demotivating losses and a cramped schedule at a pivotal point in the season create a sizable net loss downside for the majority of teams.

Included in this week’s rankings: Horizon League Tournament seeding scenarios! By my calculations six teams could still finish tied for second at 10-8 in the regular season conference standings, while Valpo sits above all the rest. Seeding, though, is a little bit trickier.

1. (1 last week) Valparaiso (19-10, 12-4 Horizon League)
Efficiency margin: +2.6

Coach Bryce Drew did the smart thing and left Kevin Van Wijk behind to get healthy while the Crusaders lost a meaningless Bracket Busters game to Loyola Marymount.

Best scenario: The Crusaders can clinch the No. 1 seed, which includes a double-bye in the tournament as well as home-court advantage throughout, with one more win (over either Loyola or Butler). Cleveland State could match Valpo’s possible resulting 13-5 record (by winning their three remaining games), but Valpo would get the tie-breaker and the top seed because they swept CSU this season.

Worst scenario: If the Crusaders lost both remaining games and finished 12-6, and Butler, CSU and Detroit won out, VU would still get a No. 2 seed (still a double-bye), because BU would then be 3-1 versus the other teams tied for the seed (Detroit and Butler).

Likely scenario (via Pomeroy predictions): No. 1 seed.

2. (3) Detroit (17-12, 10-6)
Efficiency margin: +3.6

Momentum. They have it. Winning 10 of their last 12 with an offense that is so explosive inside, the Titans look to finally be living up to expectations.

Best scenario: If the Titans win both their remaining games (Cleveland State and YSU), they’d be in contention for a No. 2 seed, at best.

Wost scenario: It’s such a crowded field at the top that two losses could drop Detroit as low as a No. 7 seed (the top 6 seeds get first-round home-court advantage).

Likely scenario (via Pomeroy predictions): No. 3 seed (win tie with season-sweep of Butler)

3. (4) Butler (17-12, 10-6)
Efficiency margin: +3.4

Last season Butler was a very modest 6-5 in the league until they didn’t lose another game until April 4 (yes, that game). Since they were 6-5 in league play this season they’ve won five of six. It should come as no surprise that Brad Stevens is working his magic and gaining big momentum late. An in-state win over Indiana State only helps.

Best scenario: Same as Detroit: In contention for a No. 2 seed at best with two more wins (against UIC and Valpo).

Wost scenario: No. 7 seed.

Likely scenario (via Pomeroy predictions): No. 4 seed. (more…)